回顧昨日的行情早段的黃金處於在一個窄幅上下震蕩市維持在1267-74區間,我都告訴大家市場比較關注凌晨02:00聯儲局的會議記錄,假若這個會議記錄是偏於鷹派的話,黃金會進一步受到打壓,反之若果是鴿派的言論,黃金就會有機會攀升,但預期黃金不能回去1300水平,衕樣的道理,黃金受壓的話,我認為它能守在大中途站1250水平以上,所以我昨日第一階段的強弱分界線位定在1274,若黃金跌破1274的話就可作空單,但是來到1267接近63先平倉,然后再看63破不破,破都不贊成大家作空,寧願來到1258 水平再買進黃金,這就是我昨天給大家的意見。至於昨日早段黃金都在1274-1267這些水平上下波動,直到凌晨02:00黃金就在1274水平,當會議記錄公布后,黃金就全面回調,一路回吐到1254-55頂住,最后收槃在1257-58。

今天開槃在1260,曾沖過一次1261,然后回去1255,現時上下爭持在58-57水平,而昨日的重頭戲為聯儲局公布的會議記錄,而結果是偏於鷹派的,當中顯示大部份的委員都認為現在美國的經濟都是處於健康的狀況,而勞動市場仍然是很強大,因此理由,對於中期的經濟及通賬都會造成一個動力,還有提及現時全世界的經濟正在改善之中,對於美國的影響沒有之前的緊張,另外,提及市場是有一點低估了聯儲局加息的可能,不過聯儲局表示對於英國會否退歐一事仍然存有擔憂,總括而言,聯儲局是有可能在6月份加息的,就算6月不加息,那么7月也有這個可能,因此理由,美元指數就攀升,黃金就全面回吐,但亦如我預期黃金守在1250大中途站之上,不過本人仍然不相信聯儲局將在6月份可以加利率﹐而英國會否退歐,我認為聯儲局對此存在擔憂,不過7月及9月加息的可能性是絕對存在,但由於現時黃金這根剌仍然存在,所以我認為往后這一兩天黃金都應該有機會處於在1247-1277區間上下波動。

而今天的強弱分界線位是1257;若黃金不能重回1257以上,大家就要小心一點,而上方阻力點︰63、67、74、77;下方支持點︰53、47、43、37;對我而言,今天黃金底位在1247的機會很大,若今天歐洲開槃后黃金不能守在57以上大家可作空單,但是來到1253以下接近1247水平一定要平倉,就算47跌破我亦不贊成作空,希望大家靜觀其變。反之,若黃金能重回1257以上可作多單,但是來到63以上一定要平倉,上方關鍵位為1267,除非67再破才可再追買,但追買之余來到74第三階段之終點站就一定有壓力存在,變成就算沖破67追買,但接近74就要先行平倉,然后再靜觀其變。至於昨日的石油價格曾升到接近49水平后就回去47水平,基於現時加拿大的火災仍未停止,而尼日利亞局勢仍然緊張,以致油價仍然有支持力,不過我仍然是這一句話,假若加拿大的火災已解決,希望大家一定要密切留意石油價格隨時有機會回吐。

至於今天歐央行將會在19:30開會,美國將公布申領失業金、費城制造業調查報告、另外,有兩件事情一定要密切留意的,包括有21:45聯儲局副主席將發表談話及22:30紐約聯儲局局長發表談話,這兩位都是很重要的人物,如果他們的口風仍然堅持為鷹派的話,屆時黃金就會回吐,反之,假若他們的口風是回復鴿派的內容,黃金就會攀升,所以希望大家要密切留意著他們的的口風及所發表之談話內容,若今天黃金能守在1257以上就為強勢,反之在1257以下就為弱勢,希望各網友最好跟著支持點和阻力點來做!






Dollars rises further after release of hawkish' FOMC minutes 

The greenback rose against other major currencies on Wednesday, as minutes from the U.S. central bank's April policy meeting showed that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger second-quarter growth as well as firming inflation and employment. 

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar came under renewed selling pressure at 109.25 ahead of Asian open and then fell to 108.72 in Tokyo morning, renewed broad-based selling in yen lifted price to 109.61 in European morning. Later, price found support at 109.30 and rose to a fresh 2-week peak at 109.84 in New York morning before easing. In New York afternoon, dollar rose again to a fresh session high of 110.05 as FOMC minutes showed that Fed signals interest rate hike firmly on the table for June. 

Fed minutes stated on Wednesday, 'most U.S. federal reserve policymakers judged it would likely be appropriate to raise interest rates in June if data remains consistent with Q2 GDP pickup, firmer labor market conditions and progress on inflation; some policymakers expressed concern that financial markets may not have accurately assessed the chance of a June rate hike, emphasized importance of central bank clearly communicating how it will respond to incoming data; policymakers expressed range of views on whether there would be enough incoming data to warrant June rate hike; several policymakers judged risks to U.S. economic outlook as now roughly balanced; many others continued to see downside risks; some policymakers noted global financial markets could be sensitive to upcoming British referendum on EU membership or unanticipated developments due to China's management of its exchange rate; a few policymakers saw it as appropriate to increase rates at April meeting; two worried that U.S. central bank was behind curve on inflation; many policymakers expressed confidence that U.S. economic growth would pick up in subsequent quarters; some saw risk that more persistent slowdown under way; a number of policymakers said risks to inflation outlook remained tilted to downsidel; many policymakers saw recent data as providing greater confidence that inflation rate would rise to central bank's 2 percent target over the medium-term; several policymakers said there is ongoing need to remain alert to vulnerabilities in the financial system, cited concerns about rapidly rising commercial real estate prices and illiquid assets in some mutual funds; policymakers generally saw risks from global economic and financial developments as having diminished, but still warranted close monitoring; participants generally agreed that fed should not completely rule out possibility of using monetary policy to address financial stability risks.' 

The single currency moved sideways in Asian morning before renewed selling interest pressuring price to 1.1283 in Asian morning, then 1.1256 in early European. Later, price rebounded to 1.1289 at European morning and then marginally higher to 1.1290 due to buying interest in euro especially versus yen before moving sideways in subdued New York morning session. In New York afternoon, price fell again to a fresh session low of 1.1223 following the release of 'hawkish' FOMC minutes. 

Although the British pound ratcheted lower against the greenback in Asian morning and fell to a session low 1.4403 in European morning after a briefly gain to 1.4454 as investors shrugged off a solid U.K. jobs report. Renewed buying interested lifted price from there and cable later rallied to as high as 1.4625 in New York morning after news the 'Remain' camp is taking a big lead over the 'Brexit' before easing. In New York afternoon, price retreated after following the release of 'hawkish' FOMC minutes. 

The Office for National Statistics reported that the claimant count, which measures the number of people receiving unemployment benefit, fell by 2,400 in April, against expectations for an increase of 4,300. Claimant count in March was revised up to 14,700, the biggest monthly increase since September 2011. The U.K. unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, in line with economists’ forecasts. The number of people in work rose by 44,000, bringing the employment rate to a record high of 74.2%. In a separate report, data showed that wage growth in U.K. continued to pick up, with average weekly earnings rising by 2.0% in the last three months, up from 1.9% in the three months to December. 

In other news, Reuters reported support for Britain to stay in the European Union has risen to its highest in three months, London's Evening Standard newspaper said on Wednesday after commissioning a poll from Ipsos-Mori. The newspaper said Ipsos-Mori found 55 percent of those surveyed supported staying in the EU, while 37 percent wanted to leave, just over a month before the June 23 referendum. 

Data to be released on Thursday: 

Japan's Machinery Orders, Australia's jobs reports, China's MNI Business Sentiment, Japan's All Industry Index, France's ILO Unemployment, UK's Retail Sales, ECB's Monetary Policy Meeting Account, U.S.'s Initial Jobless Claims. 

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